Forecasts

What CMS is likely to do next.

Live probabilities on the Medicare decisions that shape care management, value-based care and sleep. Each one moves as the evidence lands, with the source behind every move.

Forecasts by Authority. Each one links to the HANA explainer behind the question.

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The questions we are tracking.

Will CMS propose requiring practice-employed staff for CCM by September 2027?

Prediction liftPrediction drop
Daniel TashnekMike McSherryOlivia RothsteinExpert insights from Daniel Tashnek, Mike McSherry and Olivia Rothstein
10%15%Jun 2025OctJan 2026AprJulOct 2026Today 10.0%
Last updated 21 October 202610.0% chance today · tracked since 1 June 2025 · 16 sourced events · Methodology audited by Oxford AI

CMS's CY2027 proposal would pay for remote monitoring only when the practice's own employees do the work. It left CCM out and stated the limit applies to RPM and RTM. The agency did ask for comment on reworking care management codes, and the Inspector General has an open audit of CCM payments, so a CY2028 proposal could extend the test. Against that, more than 230 organisations and 32 House members oppose even the narrower RPM/RTM rule. The CY2027 final rule, due around 1 November 2026, will show whether CMS holds its line. The CY2028 proposal, usually released in July, is the only realistic path inside the window.

Resolves 30 September 2027 · Yes if, by 30 Sep 2027, CMS publishes a proposed or final rule (e.g. the CY2028 Physician Fee Schedule proposed rule) whose proposed regulatory text would make Medicare payment for any CCM code (99490, 99491, 99439, 99487, 99489 or successor/consolidated CCM codes), or for care-management services generally including CCM, conditional on the clinical staff being employees of the billing practitioner/practice, in whole or in part. A request for information or comment solicitation without proposed text does not count; the RPM/RTM-only restriction does not count. Source: Federal Register / CMS Physician Fee Schedule pages.

Why the forecast moved 7 events, newest first, numbered as on the chart · forecast last updated 21 October 2026

#DateEvent and reasoningChangeSource
76 Oct 202632 House members urge CMS to roll back RPM third-party staff ban32 bipartisan House members ask CMS to drop it; raises political cost.-0.8 pts10.8% → 10.0%Source
624 Aug 2026Over 230 organizations urge CMS not to finalize RPM/RTM restrictions230+ organisations oppose; makes an extension harder.-1.0 pts12.5% → 11.5%Source
521 Jul 2026ATA Action: proposal conflicts with Ways and Means bill backing remote monitoringHill-adjacent trade group says proposal clashes with pending legislation.-0.5 pts13.0% → 12.5%Source
416 Jul 2026Proposed rule also asks about a two-track approach to care managementRequest for comment on reworking care management codes opens a route for CCM changes, but with no staffing text.+1.0 pts11.7% → 12.7%Source
314 Jul 2026CMS proposes RPM/RTM payable only with practice-employed clinical staffCMS itself proposed the employed-staff test for RPM/RTM; it is the template that could be extended.+4.5 pts7.2% → 11.7%Source
216 Mar 2026OIG adds audit of CCM payments at risk of noncomplianceLive OIG audit of CCM payments could support a staffing condition in CY2028.+1.5 pts5.6% → 7.1%Source
15 Dec 2025CMS Innovation Center opens ACCESS model for tech-supported chronic careA separate model route for tech-enabled chronic care lowers pressure to change CCM codes.-0.3 pts5.9% → 5.6%Source

Expert commentary 4 quotes attached to the tracked events · each checked against its source

WhoWhat they said#Source
Daniel TashnekCo-Founder and CEO, PrevounceCompany“The ability to deliver CCM and APCM with third-party staffing support is not under review and those programs will be furnishable by contractors under general supervision moving forward regardless of the outcome of this final rule.”3blog.prevounce.com
Carrie NixonAttorney (co-author), Nixon Law GroupIndependent“Chronic Care Management (“CCM”) services are explicitly not included in the proposed direct employment mandate. This means that, for now, the outsourced clinical staffing model remains intact for CCM (and presumably, other care management services), but not for RPM and RTM.”3nixonlawgroup.com
Mike McSherry LinkedIn ↗Co-founder and CEO, XealthCompany“They have found that operationally it is more effective for them to outsource that care than to try and incorporate it amongst their limited clinical staff.”3techtarget.com
Olivia Rothstein LinkedIn ↗Attorney (co-author), Nixon Law GroupIndependent“Every restriction CMS proposes for RPM appears as an open question about care management in the same rule's primary care RFI.”4nixonlawgroup.com

Built using the most accurate forecasting models on Earth, by Authority.inc. Methodology audited by Oxford AI. Last updated 21 October 2026.

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Will CMS's final 2027 fee schedule keep APP Plus at eight measures by December 2026?

Prediction liftPrediction drop
Emily BrowerJohn BrooksJohn KnappExpert insights from Emily Brower, John Brooks and John Knapp
20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%Oct 2022Apr 2023JulOctJan 2024AprJulOctJan 2025AprJulOctJan 2026AprOct 2026Today 88.0%
Last updated 21 October 202688.0% chance today · tracked since 1 October 2022 · 14 sourced events · Methodology audited by Oxford AI

CMS's July 2026 proposal for the 2027 fee schedule removes two planned APP Plus measures, which leaves exactly eight for ACOs reporting in 2027. In the year before, CMS finalized a similar APP Plus removal as proposed. ACO groups and hospital groups back the Shared Savings Program package, and the final rule went to OMB on 29 September. Final fee schedule rules have been issued around 1 November for four years running, leaving about two months before the deadline. Remaining risk: a delayed rule, a reversal that keeps a measure, or an added measure.

Resolves 31 December 2026 · Yes if, by 31 Dec 2026, CMS publishes the final CY2027 Physician Fee Schedule rule and the APP Plus quality measure set that MSSP ACOs must report for performance year 2027 contains exactly eight measures (counting CAHPS and the CMS-calculated claims measures). Which eight does not matter; a swap counts as Yes, nine or more counts as No. Source: Federal Register text / CMS MSSP fact sheet.

Why the forecast moved 7 events, newest first, numbered as on the chart · forecast last updated 21 October 2026

#DateEvent and reasoningChangeSource
729 Sep 2026CY2027 PFS final rule received at OMB for reviewFinal rule is in OMB clearance with about 13 weeks to the deadline, so the last step before release has started.+7.0 pts81.0% → 88.0%Source
614 Sep 2026AHA comments on proposal, supporting its Shared Savings Program changesHospital lobby supports the MSSP proposals; no sign of added-measure demands.+1.5 pts79.5% → 81.0%Source
515 Jul 2026Physician groups call the proposal's value-based care changes positiveIndependent coverage reads the ACO changes as positive, not contested.+1.0 pts78.5% → 79.5%Source
414 Jul 2026Proposal removes two planned APP Plus measures, setting the set at eightThe proposal itself is the Yes outcome: eight measures, with the two planned additions dropped.+55.0 pts20.5% → 75.5%Source
331 Oct 2025CY2026 final rule drops one APP Plus measure as proposed, keeps two planned additionsA proposed APP Plus removal was finalized as proposed, the closest precedent.+1.0 pts18.5% → 19.5%Source
214 Jul 2025CY2026 proposal to remove Screening for Social Drivers of Health from APP PlusCMS proposed trimming APP Plus in the prior cycle too.+0.5 pts18.0% → 18.5%Source
11 Nov 2022CMS issued CY2023 and CY2024 PFS final rules on 1 Nov 2022 and 2 Nov 2023Final rules have landed 1-2 Nov for years, so timing risk before 31 Dec is small.+1.0 pts17.0% → 18.0%Source

Expert commentary 3 quotes attached to the tracked events · each checked against its source

WhoWhat they said#Source
Emily Brower LinkedIn ↗President and chief executive officer, National Association of Accountable Care Organizations (NAACOS)Independent“Today’s proposals are a positive step toward making this goal a reality and we look forward to continued collaboration.”4naacos.com
John Brooks LinkedIn ↗Deputy Administrator and Director of the Center for Medicare, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid ServicesOfficial“Our goal is simple: deliver better outcomes for patients by appropriately incentivizing providers, improving quality measurement, and reducing administrative burden.”4fiercehealthcare.com
John Knapp LinkedIn ↗Vice President, Advocacy, Premier Inc.Independent“By enhancing shared savings opportunities, refining benchmarking policies, modernizing quality measurement, and advancing more flexible participation requirements, CMS is taking important steps to make the program more sustainable and attractive for providers.”4hcinnovationgroup.com

Built using the most accurate forecasting models on Earth, by Authority.inc. Methodology audited by Oxford AI. Last updated 21 October 2026.

Read the explainer behind this forecast

Will CMS's LEAD model have more than 100 ACOs for 2027 by March 2027?

Prediction liftPrediction drop
Emily BrowerAbe SuttonSusan DentzerExpert insights from Emily Brower, Abe Sutton and Susan Dentzer
35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%Dec 2024Apr 2025JulOctJan 2026AprJulOct 2026Today 69.5%
Last updated 21 October 202669.5% chance today · tracked since 31 December 2024 · 18 sourced events · Methodology audited by Oxford AI

CMS announced LEAD in December 2025 as the ten-year successor to ACO REACH, which had 74 ACOs in 2026. In September 2026 it named 79 ACOs in the optional implementation period and said it is working with well over 100 ACOs preparing for 2027, with participation final in mid-December. CMS gave a model-by-model ACO count in early February this year, so a LEAD count before 31 March is likely. The risks are an alignment minimum that trims the cohort, benchmark objections from 52 groups, and a count published after the deadline.

Resolves 31 March 2027 · Yes if, by 31 Mar 2027, CMS publicly reports (LEAD PY2027 participant list, press release, fact sheet or other official CMS publication) that more than 100 ACOs are participating in the LEAD Model for performance year 2027. The first official CMS count settles it; later departures do not change the result. A CMS statement that "more than 100" participate counts even without a full list.

Why the forecast moved 7 events, newest first, numbered as on the chart · forecast last updated 21 October 2026

#DateEvent and reasoningChangeSource
713 Oct 202652 groups urge CMS to revise LEAD benchmarksOrganised pushback on benchmarks may cause some ACOs to hold back.-2.0 pts71.5% → 69.5%Source
621 Sep 2026CMS names 79 ACOs in LEAD implementation period79 named already and CMS says well over 100 are preparing; this is the decisive fact.+20.0 pts53.5% → 73.5%Source
527 Aug 2026CMS publishes LEAD PY2027 alignment and financial paperFinal financial methods let ACOs commit.+2.0 pts51.5% → 53.5%Source
420 Jul 2026Aledade says LEAD is built to attract high-spending ACOsA large ACO operator evaluates LEAD favourably.+1.5 pts50.0% → 51.5%Source
331 Mar 2026CMS releases LEAD request for applicationsApplications opened with a 17 May response date and a 1 January 2027 launch.+4.0 pts44.0% → 48.0%Source
24 Feb 2026CMS early-year fact sheet counts ACOs by modelCMS published a model-by-model ACO count in early February, so a LEAD count before 31 March is likely.+4.0 pts40.0% → 44.0%Source
118 Dec 2025CMS unveils LEAD, a 10-year ACO model starting 2027The ten-year model was formally announced with a 2027 start.+4.0 pts35.0% → 39.0%Source

Expert commentary 6 quotes attached to the tracked events · each checked against its source

WhoWhat they said#Source
Emily Brower LinkedIn ↗President and chief executive officer, National Association of ACOsIndependent“launching the model in 2027 does not provide ACO REACH participants with enough time to evaluate alternative payment models options and effectively plan their transition.”1naacos.com
Abe Sutton LinkedIn ↗Director, CMS Innovation CenterOfficial“LEAD is designed to make care more connected, more proactive and more centered on what patients with Medicare truly need,”1mcknightshomecare.com
Susan Dentzer LinkedIn ↗President and chief executive officer, America's Physician GroupsIndependent“LEAD has multiple elements that may appeal to many of our member organizations as they consider their next steps in the pursuit of accountable care for 2027 and beyond,”1apg.org
Jack Slevin LinkedIn ↗Equity analyst, JefferiesIndependent“Specific efforts to engage with high-needs & Medicaid patients should help drive incremental penetration in [traditional Medicare value-based care]”1healthcaredive.com
Emily Brower LinkedIn ↗President and chief executive officer, National Association of ACOsIndependent“the benchmarking methodology outlines an approach that reflects the financial realities organizations face in participating in accountable care.”3naacos.com
Michael AvaricioPresident, Innovative Health ACOIndependent“Participation in the LEAD Model represents an important milestone for Innovative Health ACO and the independent physicians we serve,”6einpresswire.com

Built using the most accurate forecasting models on Earth, by Authority.inc. Methodology audited by Oxford AI. Last updated 21 October 2026.

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